Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell). Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.Ī positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. Our proprietary surprise prediction model - the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) - has this insight at its core. Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.Įstimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 3.05% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. Revenues are expected to be $139.69 million, down 11.2% from the year-ago quarter. This company is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.02 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +91.7%. While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower. The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on November 7. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates. (UPST) reports results for the quarter ended September 2023. ![]() “His Ridiculous and Unconstitutional Gag Order, not allowing me to defend myself against him and his politically biased and out of control, Trump Hating Clerk, who is sinking him and his Court to new levels of LOW, is a disgrace,” Trump’s post continued.įor the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to The Hill.Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on lower revenues when Upstart Holdings, Inc. ![]() “Judge Arthur Engoron has just been overturned (stayed!) by the New York State Appellate Division (Appeals Court), for the 4th TIME (on the same case!),” Trump posted on his social media platform. ![]() In the wake of the gag orders being temporarily lifted, Trump resumed his Truth Social attacks on Engoron and his clerk. The New York Appellate Division lifted the gag orders against Trump earlier this month, which stemmed from Trump’s attack on Truth Social against one of Engoron’s clerks calling her Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-N.Y.) “girlfriend” and sharing personally identifying information about her. The attorney pointed to large amounts of “threatening, harassing, disparaging and antisemitic messages” received by the court’s chamber phone and the personal cell phone of a law clerk for Engoron warranting “the imposition of the limited gag orders imposed by the Court.” In the filing, an attorney in the Office of Court Administration argued that Trump’s request to stay the gag orders imposed on him during the civil fraud trial should be denied.
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